Garnaut Review Final Report Released
September 30, 2008
The Garnaut Climate Change Review final report was released on 30th September, to mixed reviews from environment groups.
Whilst acknowledging that the case for strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is a conservative one and that Australia has the most to lose from inaction, Garnaut recommends low targets for 2020 in the absence of international agreement.
He advocates three different targets depending on the state of post Kyoto protocol international agreements.
Firstly, he says the most practical aim is an agreement on 550ppm concentrations in the atmosphere, and that Australia's fair share of that agreement would be to reduce emissions by 10 percent (from 2000 levels), and 80 percent by 2050.
Secondly Garnaut argues for Australia to lobby for a 450ppm agreement, which would mean a domestic target of emissions reductions of 25 percent from 2000 levels by 2020 and 90 percent by 2050. Professor Garnaut says he is pessimistic about the possibility of such an agreement.
However, and most controversially, in the absence of a comprehensive global agreement post Kyoto (2013 and beyond) he recommends that Australia should aim only for a 5 percent reduction by 2020 leading to a 2050 reduction target of 60 percent !
The lowest target reduction has been condemned as disastrous, given the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) recommendation that developed countries as a group must reduce their emissions by between 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.
Moreland Energy Foundation has also endorsed this benchmark in our submission to the Federal Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) Green Paper. We have reminded the Australian government that this goal was recognised at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali in December, 2007 and sets the context for the domestic short term target. We urge the Government, when considering the Garnaut report, to maintain its commitment to targets that reflect the science and the urgency of greenhouse gas emission impacts.
The Australian Conservation Foundation has welcomed the finding for the 25 percent reduction by 2020 as the very least Australia can do to give our natural icons, like the Great Barrier Reef a fighting chance against climate change.
The Climate Action Network Australia (CANA) - which MEFL is a member of - has criticised the pessimistic approach to the Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 on the post Kyoto agreement, with Garnaut telegraphing a "play to lose" strategy, by stating the lower targets to be adopted if a comprehensive international agreement is not achieved.
Instead, CANA argues that we should be aiming for a reduction BELOW 450ppm, as scientists have calculated that to be "very likely' to keep the temperature increase below 2 degrees, emissions and existing concentrations must be maintained at no more than 400ppm, with a decrease to 350ppm - keeping in mind that the environment does not negotiate.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd himself has acknowledged that strong action is necessary:
"Unless we are able to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at something in the order of 450, 490 parts per million, then frankly we've placed the planet in grave danger of not being able to correct itself." - Kevin Rudd, 21/10/07.
To download the report visit: www.garnautreview.org.au
To download MEFL's submission to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
click here
More information
Friends of the Earth Australia: Garnaut recipe for disaster www.foe.org.au
Australian Conservation Foundation: Government must aim for 25 percent by 2020 www.acfonline.org.au
Read CANA's position paper: www.cana.net.au/
